IoT growth options for service providers

Do mobile operators and M2M service providers have a role in the emerging IoT market? This is a hot topic in corporate boardrooms, industry journals [1] and IoT conferences [2]. It’s also one where MNOs, M2M service providers and technology providers hold opposing opinions, even within the same company.

It’s clear that companies are keen to capitalise on the IoT opportunity. This should be no surprise given the drum-roll of multiple billions of connected devices from different analyst firms. What holds companies back is their relatively incomplete grasp of:

• how the market will develop along different dimensions,
  
• where the innovative commercial opportunities are crystallizing,
  
• and, what strategic initiatives will help companies to position themselves to capitalize on market opportunities (as distinct from worrying about where the next tranche of connected device sales will come from). 

One way to simplify the IoT strategy challenge is to step back and visualize the emerging market landscape. This provides the map against which individual companies can plot their IoT strategies. It’s a bit like a person sitting on top of a tall hill, surveying the surrounding countryside and deciding on the best route between points A and B, taking account of his/her own resourcefulness.

Just like the countryside below our strategist on top of the hill, it’s useful to think of the IoT map in terms of a cube to illustrate three avenues of growth.

IoT alliances and interoperability

I have recently been consulting on the topic of IoT Platform strategy with a particular focus on the recently issued oneM2M standard. As part of this work, I researched the activities of different IoT alliances and industry groups because there is a lot of industry discussion about competing standards.

In discussions with company executives, a recurring theme is that nobody wants to take a bet on any single ‘standards’ approach. As a result, many companies choose to hedge their bets and participate in multiple initiatives. Having examined several of the leading initiatives from different dimensions, it’s debatable whether companies are getting a strategic, product-development return on their participation (setting aside brand-building and corporate networking benefits).

There are many different ways to look at each of initiatives. For this post, let’s begin by concentrating on their mission and primary objectives.

Roadmap for IoT strategy

Over the past few weeks, there have been several industry conferences, magazine articles and webinars dealing with the IoT market opportunity and the role of different companies across the eco-system. The topics addressed in these events have generally highlighted M2M use cases (vertical-specific applications) and the promising role for telecoms operators.

In many respects, the subjects under discussion have been disappointing. They indicate that many parts of the industry are still coming up the M2M learning curve and some way off dealing with the commercial implications of the IoT market. In terms of the competitive landscape that is forming around the IoT, company executives who are coming to terms with M2M are not yet in a position to plan sustainable IoT strategies.

So, how do you tell if your organization is working with an M2M mind-set and whether it has embarked on the transition from M2M to IoT?

IoT is not the end game

Over the past few months, I have been working with the Telco2.0 initiative who originated the concept of a 2-sided telco business model. Our collaboration focused on the evolution of the M2M market. Where is it going? And, what strategies can companies apply as M2M evolves into the Internet of Things (IoT). Here is a link [1] to their recent research report which includes extracts from some of my previous essays.

The central theme of the report is that M2M service providers need to adapt to an IoT world as characterized by:

• billions of devices, connected via a variety of (short- and long-range) technologies which interact with applications that draw data from a variety of sources including other applications.

• a convergence between ‘Digital’ and IoT which arises because many M2M/IoT devices will rely on smartphone/tablet interfaces and associated identity-mapping relationships.

How will mobile network operators (MNOs), who are at the nexus of these changes, react in relation to the new addressable market opportunities and the organisational models necessary for commercial success?

MNOs have three choices.

2014 Corporate Initiatives; market rules are changing

Following several years of rapid growth, the 141 corporate initiatives in 2014 almost matched the 147 events that occurred in 2013.

In 2014, companies in the M2M eco-system were less active in several areas. As illustrated below, there were fewer recorded events of companies either: expanding into new market segments; promoting new technology; and, entering into partnering agreements. Product innovation saw a rise in activity as companies launched new products and services. In general, these addressed the needs for specific customer applications.

Business innovation at IoT speed

Having worked on the topic of M2M value chain structures in 2012, a couple of relevant market developments caught my attention over the past few weeks. These involve: Aeris, an M2M service provider, Cisco, and Deutsche Telekom.

Each of these company initiatives aims to simplify the process of implementing M2M and IoT applications. They provide guidance to (non-technical) companies that are seeking to implement M2M solutions while also providing an organising structure for complex application situations. These examples hold lessons that companies can apply to improve their sales performance in M2M and IoT markets.

Long term prospects for IoT and 'digital'

Last month, I was invited to chair a panel for the eponymously named company, Apigee. Although it was billed as an API event, Chet Kapoor (Apigee’s CEO) opened the 2-day conference by framing today’s market in terms of the transition to ‘digital’, with APIs being a key implementation enabler. His opening remarks summarised the situation as follows:

• Every business is a digital business

• Every business needs a digital platform

• Every business has a Chief Digital Officer 

In the past, I have written on the topic of telecoms operators launching ‘digital’ strategies [1]. It was therefore reassuring to hear this development being so firmly validated. It was also positive to witness several enterprises discuss their digital strategies and early implementation successes.

As the market develops, enterprise demand will continue to drive demand for enabling services. These are opportunities that telecoms operators and specialist M2M/IoT platform providers can capitalise upon. There is early evidence of this trend in the recent investment activities of companies like SingTel and Telstra.

Pricing M2M to drive sales revenues

Over the past few years, technology suppliers and service providers have become increasingly optimistic about the market prospects for M2M. Much of this is attributable to the promise of multi-billion unit sales as yesteryear’s M2M sector is absorbed into today’s, broader IoT classification.

M2M has broken out of its historical, niche thanks to a shared industry vision to evangelize the M2M opportunity. Return-on-Investment (RoI) arguments for M2M applications have no doubt been persuasive in fostering the adoption of new applications. However, two other developments have arguably had a greater influence over adoption and RoI outcomes. One is the introduction of simpler, standard operational procedures tailored to M2M (e.g. life-cycle provisioning). The second is the year-on-year reduction in hardware and connectivity costs which have resulted in lower prices to customers.

There is a risk however that these developments and the price-led strategy, in particular, will pose a longer term threat to existing M2M business strategies.

Do consumers trust mobile operators, Internet and media companies?

The Royal Statistical Society (RSS) in the UK recently launched its findings from a survey of the UK population. The study examined the attitudes of individuals towards the use of (their) data and the appeal of data sharing. The study is based on a survey carried out by Ipsos MORI for the RSS and covered adults in the ages 16 to 75 age range in Great Britain.

The RSS study found that media, Internet, telecommunications and insurance companies, all come at the bottom of a ‘trust in data’ league table. Is any of this relevant to companies in the M2M and IoT markets?

Trust in Identity

The 2014 CES show is currently generating a lot of consumer technology related press-headlines as different corporations reveal their stakes in seeking to capitalize from the emerging IoT market. IBM/Technicolor got the ball rolling with their IoT/M2M monitoring offering. They were soon followed by Google and AT&T/Ericsson with their connected car ambitions. Intel and Sony also registered on the IoT radar with their messages about miniaturized and wearable connected device offerings.

These companies and the many others that have latched on to the M2M/IoT phenomenon share a vision of a sharp rise in the total population of connected devices.

As this trend develops, users will become ever more dependent on their connected devices. This will give rise to three interesting industry developments each of which represents a potential commercial opportunity.

The IoT Gets Real as Corporates Commit

2013 has witnessed a strong growth in the number of corporate initiatives that make explicit reference to the Internet of Things (IoT) in contrast to terms such as M2M and “embedded solutions”. It seems that large companies are committing to a market where much of the recent activity can be attributed to start-ups and academia.

A few weeks ago in early November, Intel demonstrated its commitment to the IoT market by creating a special division called the IoT Solutions Group, combining its Intelligent Systems Group with its Wind River acquisition. This development seems like the product of a progressive evolution in Intel’s strategy for the ‘connected devices’ market dating back to its mid-2009 acquisition of Wind River for almost US$900m.

It will be interesting to see how well Intel’s internal re-organization efforts now proceed as it develops more of an IoT market presence, especially as one of its main rivals in the mobile computing market, ARM, has also been active with its own IoT plans.

Smart Home Platform Innovator Strategies

Early in 2012, I completed a study for the GSM Association (GSMA) on the topic of new business models that would be linked to innovative, connected-device applications. This study laid out a sequence of value propositions, as companies seek to move up the value chain. In order to bring these new value propositions to market, new and innovative business models would need to be designed.

In the early days of M2M, the value proposition was all about connectivity. This would make stand-alone devices ‘smart’ and the business challenge was largely about how connectivity could be ‘embedded’ inexpensively. Later on, the market evolved as companies started to care about deployment, reliability and the user-experience issues. This ushered in a new value proposition around managed connectivity and several specialist platform providers have emerged in their own right or as partners to mobile operators.

The final two sources of value that were identified included the delivery of ‘platform innovator’ and ‘stewardship’ services. The connected devices market has been moving in these directions with three companies – Arrayent, Deutsche Telekom’s Qivicon and Zonoff – investing their energies in the platforms arena.

'Place' as an IoT Strategy

As with the case of ‘cloud computing services’ and ‘big-data’, Internet of Things (IoT) applications [1] have been propelled into the business mainstream as companies have jumped on the latest wave of business-press marketing.

For companies that actually want and need to develop an IoT strategy, however, the lack of clarity in distinguishing between IoT services (based on mash-ups of data from multiple and often un-related sources) and traditional M2M services (which involve connected devices within a narrow and well defined industry vertical) constitutes a source of long term business risk.

M2M Acquisitions and the Price of Growth

The topic of acquisitions in the M2M market has featured in several company announcements and several of my discussions with industry players. In late June Avista Capital Partners completed its $253m acquisition of Telular Corporation, an M2M event monitoring and reporting service provider.

During the month of May, the CEO of Sierra Wireless was quizzed about his company’s acquisition intentions by financial analysts at a Global TMT Conference organised by Jefferies, an investment bank. Following its divestiture of a non-core business unit to focus on M2M, Sierra Wireless holds about $160m on its balance sheet. Of this, about $100m is being earmarked for M&A initiatives. So, what are some of the considerations that will determine how these funds might be deployed?

M2M Corporate Initatives - Strong H1-2013

Over the first half of 2013, there has been strong evidence that companies in the M2M market are continuing to implement a range of business strategies to capture new M2M service and revenue opportunities. Specifically:

• the number of corporate initiatives is more than double that for the corresponding period in 2012

• the market is no longer entirely driven by supply-side companies; several enterprises have strategically embraced M2M connectivity and have either partnered with mobile network operators or they are taking the lead role in developing new services

Prices and Value of Consumer Data

The topic of personal data has interested me for a number of years because it is at the heart of new approaches to marketing and service development based on connected devices. I have written about the commercial potential of personal data from a business model perspective [1] for the GSM Association and introduced the concept of Stewardship and Platform Innovator strategies for companies in the mobile eco-system.

I was therefore pleased to see the Financial Times (FT) publish a series of articles on consumer data. Accompanying this series is an interactive calculator [2] that allows readers to determine a price for their personal data based on pricing benchmarks supplied by a data broker. After filling in the options for my own profile - in terms of demographics, family and health, property, activities of interest, and consumer behaviors - it appears that the price for my personal profile is about US$0.80.

Competing for In-Home Services

Late last year, in the course of some project-related research, I took a look at the home security market in the context of 'smart-home' service concepts. Fixed- and mobile-network operators view this as one of several promising market opportunities to offer home automation and home security types of service.

A great deal is made about mobile operators pursuing new opportunities such as these in what are referred to as ‘adjacent markets’. However, it is as well to recognize that incumbent providers from those 'adjacent' markets may also have ambitions of their own in the communications arena.

IoT Business Models

A few weeks ago, I had the pleasure to be a stimulus speaker at a New Digital Economics event in San Francisco. I spoke about IoT Business Models during a full day session - entitled Digital Things – which was devoted to new opportunities from the ‘Internet of Things’.

Digital Things ran in parallel to sessions on Digital Commerce and Digital Entertainment so there was definite competition for conference delegates. As a measure of how seriously Silicon Valley is taking the IoT market, the Digital Things session drew by far the largest audience.

Since the IoT market is still comparatively underdeveloped in commercial terms, my presentation focused on lessons learned from the M2M market. In particular, I highlighted several insights from the business strategies that service suppliers and providers are implementing.

Sierra Wireless reinforces its M2M strategy

I have been tracking corporate developments in the M2M market over the past few years. They are useful for performance benchmarking while also providing insights as to how companies are implementing strategy and committing to this market.

To date, every initiative has been expansionary involving a mix of acquisitions, distribution agreements, innovation and partnering. The divestiture by Sierra Wireless of its AirCard business, announced on 28 Jan 2013, therefore triggered something of a database classification challenge. In essence, the company sees a tremendous growth opportunity in the M2M market while also acknowledging that the data-card business is on the decline, especially as increasing numbers of Internet enabled devices already include ‘embedded mobile’. Sierra Wireless has therefore chosen to exit this business and to direct its investment capacity towards more promising M2M opportunities.

Building a "billion dollar" M2M business

Over the past 1-2 years, the concept of a “billion dollar” business has often arisen in my project related discussions concerning multi-national operators. Indeed, Matthew Key (Head of Telefónica Digital) recently set a target of Eur.0.5-08bn (almost US$1 billion) for its M2M revenues by 2015. A billion matters in the frame of reference for most large operators because anything smaller often does not warrant management attention. This is understandably the case when resources are being requested of Group-level decision makers who have to weigh competing market opportunities.

So, what does a billion dollar business look like? How might an MNO reach this level of revenues within a 3-5 year interval of time? And, what are some of the business model implications for operators pursuing a “billion dollar” goal?