2023 in Review: Connectivity Dominates but IoT-system Gaps Remain

Two investment themes bookended 2023. In January, the European Union backed a $100m venture capital fund, managed by Momenta Partners. In December, Softbank announced its EUR473m ($514m) investment for a 51% stake in Cubic Telecom. This development more than drew the eye as
exemplified by the analyst commentary around the high (16x) revenue to implied enterprise value multiple. 

In between, the level of corporate activity in the IoT sector continued at roughly the same pace in prior years, albeit down on the years of heightened activity going back five or so years ago. There were several developments among the vendor and network operator communities, but less so among the IoT platform providers. Governments became more active with an emphasis on security and protections for the consumer sector. 

Against the backdrop of 5G developments and 6G pathfinding, IoT is becoming a part of the fabric of enterprise operations and national infrastructure. Established players continue to emphasize connectivity, a relatively small portion of IoT value chains, while enterprises focus on quick-to-market solutions enabled by cloud providers and systems integrators. Both approaches risk leaving ‘system of systems’ issues for later consideration. 

Telco Challenges in Entering Adjacent Markets

I recently come across a couple of experienced industry analysts using some variation of the term “permission to play” when talking about where telco service providers should and should not focus their strategies. As a framework, there is some merit in being disciplined about an organizations core market(s). 

However, if the framework is applied rigidly, the mantra artificially limits the scope for innovation and industry analysis. That is a growing risk for a sector that operates against a backdrop of transformative innovation. It is also a risk because the boundaries between telco, adjacent industries and emerging sectors are blurring.

IoT is Dead; Long Live IoT!

Copenhagen Business School recently hosted an expert panel [1] to explore how algorithms and data shape competition in the context of platforms. These might be e-commerce or social media platforms that exploit consumer data for advertising and behavioral-nudging purposes. The dynamics of this market are changing, partly due to privacy regulations. Competitive strategies, such as Apple’s App Tracking Transparency (ATT) offering, are another factor [2]. 

Among the economic, competitive strategy and technology topics under discussion, the discussion around data seemed particularly relevant to how the Internet of Things (IoT) market is developing. 

2020 in Review: Corporates Adapt Their IoT Business Models

This review of 2020 corporate initiatives in the IoT market builds on a history of tracking strategic industry developments for over a decade. Two sets of corporate events that bookended the start and end of 2020 provide instructive examples of the roadmap and dead ends that characterize today’s IoT market. In the intervening months, organizations in different parts of the industry ecosystem bolstered their IoT strategies. Some developed complementary capabilities through M&A while others addressed go-to-market issues through business reorganization and product-innovation initiatives. For many organizations, however, there remain challenges in balancing short term imperatives with strategic positioning goals. There is a degree of comfort in embracing the familiar. The risk is that this leads to an under-investment in properly integrating new business approaches and complementary technologies.

2018 in Review: IoT puzzle-pieces falling into place

Compared to previous years, the pace of corporate activity in the IoT arena has settled down. This is to be expected in a maturing market cycle. This impression may be at variance with wider industry sentiment where the use of AI/Blockchain/IoT/Machine Learning labelling continues to sensationalize.

As a sign of IoT market reality, the opening event of 2018 dealt with the commercial reality. It took the form of Telefonica O2 withdrawing from the smart home market through the closure of O2 Smart Home. The year ended with a couple of more promising events for the mobile and IoT industries. I’ll touch on these later.

Most activity was concentrated among three groups: technology vendors; network operators (mobile, low-power and virtual); and, platform providers.

What do we know about IoT developers?

A couple reports published in recent weeks have touched on the topic of the IoT developer community. The first one, from Vision Mobile [1], is entitled IoT Megatrends 2015. Based on research involving over 4,000 IoT developers, Vision Mobile identifies four seismic changes that will shake up the IoT market; one of these changes is that 'everyone can become a developer'.

According to Vision Mobile, this development is quite likely to occur in the consumer portion of the IoT market. This is because IoT platforms, such as Pebble, Razer, Android Wear and Apple WatchKit in the smart-watch segment for example, will evolve in ways that allow developers to orchestrate data streams into valuable scenarios for users. Soon, the ability to manipulate data streams will become so easy that everyone can become a ‘developer’. Or, to use a term that I introduced in an earlier post [2], we should expect a data 'taker' class of user to emerge, paralleling the ‘makers’ of the hardware world.

The second IoT developer survey comes from the Eclipse Foundation [3] and this draws on a small (about a tenth of the Vision Mobile sample) sample of real IoT developers (Eclipse eliminated respondents who did not meet its criteria for IoT developers).

The study author admits to a skewed sample base because of factors such as the channels used to recruit participants. Nevertheless, amongst details about the most popular programming languages, protocols and use of open-source technology there was a surprising revelation about the highly visible industry alliances that are evangelizing interoperability and the IoT market.

IoT Roaming

The mobile industry and users of its services are very familiar with the concept of roaming. Roaming allows users to access mobile services outside their home-operator’s footprint. Most users are familiar with roaming in the context of foreign travel. Roaming also occurs when users cannot access their service provider network at home and need to ‘roam’ onto other, local service-provider networks.

M2M service providers and IoT technology developers are now beginning to think about new service scenarios where ‘foreign’ devices enter a local operating environment; I have been using the term ‘IoT roaming’ to describe this situation. There are several reasons why IoT roaming is important, and different compared to traditional ‘roaming’. This is because IoT applications need the ability to recognize and inter-operate with roaming devices. There are knock-on implications for service provider business models and the platform capabilities needed to support IoT applications.