2023 in Review: Connectivity Dominates but IoT-system Gaps Remain

Two investment themes bookended 2023. In January, the European Union backed a $100m venture capital fund, managed by Momenta Partners. In December, Softbank announced its EUR473m ($514m) investment for a 51% stake in Cubic Telecom. This development more than drew the eye as
exemplified by the analyst commentary around the high (16x) revenue to implied enterprise value multiple. 

In between, the level of corporate activity in the IoT sector continued at roughly the same pace in prior years, albeit down on the years of heightened activity going back five or so years ago. There were several developments among the vendor and network operator communities, but less so among the IoT platform providers. Governments became more active with an emphasis on security and protections for the consumer sector. 

Against the backdrop of 5G developments and 6G pathfinding, IoT is becoming a part of the fabric of enterprise operations and national infrastructure. Established players continue to emphasize connectivity, a relatively small portion of IoT value chains, while enterprises focus on quick-to-market solutions enabled by cloud providers and systems integrators. Both approaches risk leaving ‘system of systems’ issues for later consideration. 

2019 in Review: A changed IoT landscape

The turn of the year has triggered many people to reflect on what they were doing 10 years ago. With that in mind, I looked through my tracker of M2M and IoT corporate initiatives to see what has changed and what we might learn about the future. The main categories of initiative include the following: technology innovation, market entry/expansion, partnering, acquisitions/investments, distributor agreements, product/service innovation, business reorganization and outsourcing.

A more tightly knit IoT value-chain 

A snapshot of the 2009 industry covers a relatively well defined mobile-industry ecosystem. This largely centered on mobile operator initiatives, driven by leading operators and supported by GSMA efforts to develop a new market for the mobile ecosystem.

A change in perspective reveals new IoT strategies

My last post examined the direction that several MNOs are taking with their IoT strategies [1]. Applying these trends at an industry level, I questioned whether MNOs are approaching the commercial opportunity with a broad enough strategic perspective. Think about it from the perspective that traditional mobile connections will supposedly account for roughly 10% of all IoT connections. That proportion should rise now that low power cellular technologies (NB-IoT family) are firmly on the deployment roadmap. Since this raises the credibility of a vibrant supplier eco-system, more adopters should gravitate to mobile connectivity to take advantage of more compelling economies of scale.

Nevertheless, it’s clear that mobile connectivity will coexist as one of several IoT access technologies. However, unless MNOs find ways to stake an economic role in activities higher up the value chain they will lose out on promising commercial prospects. They will also find themselves dis-intermediated from end customers and their needs. How might this play out?

2017 in Review: Making the IoT work

Looking back over notable, M2M/IoT corporate initiatives in 2017, mobile network operators (MNOs) and technology vendors were the two most active groups in the industry eco-system.

The main feature amongst MNOs was market expansion into new geographies. Sometimes, this happened individually; more often, it took the form of partnering with other network operators. This is a classic growth model for the mobile operator community.

In the technology vendor community, leading initiatives took the form of: acquisitions/investments; partnering (with MNOs, platform providers and system integrators); and, product innovation.

In comparative terms, activity among platform organizations was subdued. And, end-users barely featured among 2017 initiatives. It is likely that these last two data points mask a higher level of internal activity targeting operational scaling and in-house developments as firms solidify their foundations in the IoT market. As an example, Altair, a provider of engineering software to enterprise customers, acquired the Carriots IoT platform. This initiative illustrates the trend to internalize IoT capabilities and has parallels with the earlier acquisition of ThingWorx by PTC [1].

2016 in Review: Shift in Industry Dynamics as the IoT Enters the Mainstream

According to my records, the strength of IoT corporate initiatives witnessed over previous years weakened in 2016, somewhat in contrast to the much greater visibility of the IoT at industry events and in the marketing literature.

While the number of merger, acquisition and investment (MA&I) fell compared to 2015, as a proportion of all corporate events it increased over the prior years.

About 70% of these relate to acquisitions; the remainder correspond to fundraising or investment activities.

Now that the IoT market has become a mainstream idea across the wider economy, the MA&I dynamic reveals a stronger tendency for companies to accelerate their IoT strategies by acquiring capabilities from third parties.

Reality bites for low-power wide-area IoT

A few weeks ago, I commented on a LightReading article [1] on the topic of IoT prospects for wireless operators. I received positive feedback and a few questions about my observations on the revenue drivers that will shape operator strategies over the long run. In essence, I pointed out that wireless operators can grow in three directions and that their individual strategies will be a hybrid of the alternatives.

Readers can digest the full logic of a presentation that oneM2M Partnership Project invited to deliver at a workshop hosted by ETSI [2] in December 2015. In summary, I outlined how operators can grow along three dimensions.

2015 in Review: The strategic balance between IoT scale and value

Corporate activity in the M2M/IoT market continues to grow in line with the roughly 30% growth rate that many market analysts forecast for connected devices. Acquisition and investment activity grew at a much faster rate over the past few years and reflects a positive corporate attitude to this important market.

Mobile network operators (MNOs) were very active especially in the low-power, wide-area networking (LPWAN) arena which is positive in terms of driving industry scale. Companies in the platform services segment were even more active highlighting the scope for value creation higher up the industry value chain. The industry dynamics between MNOs and platform service providers will set up an interesting strategic challenge – that of scale vs. value – which will affect all market participants over the coming years.

IoT growth options for service providers

Do mobile operators and M2M service providers have a role in the emerging IoT market? This is a hot topic in corporate boardrooms, industry journals [1] and IoT conferences [2]. It’s also one where MNOs, M2M service providers and technology providers hold opposing opinions, even within the same company.

It’s clear that companies are keen to capitalise on the IoT opportunity. This should be no surprise given the drum-roll of multiple billions of connected devices from different analyst firms. What holds companies back is their relatively incomplete grasp of:

• how the market will develop along different dimensions,
  
• where the innovative commercial opportunities are crystallizing,
  
• and, what strategic initiatives will help companies to position themselves to capitalize on market opportunities (as distinct from worrying about where the next tranche of connected device sales will come from). 

One way to simplify the IoT strategy challenge is to step back and visualize the emerging market landscape. This provides the map against which individual companies can plot their IoT strategies. It’s a bit like a person sitting on top of a tall hill, surveying the surrounding countryside and deciding on the best route between points A and B, taking account of his/her own resourcefulness.

Just like the countryside below our strategist on top of the hill, it’s useful to think of the IoT map in terms of a cube to illustrate three avenues of growth.

2014 Corporate Initiatives; market rules are changing

Following several years of rapid growth, the 141 corporate initiatives in 2014 almost matched the 147 events that occurred in 2013.

In 2014, companies in the M2M eco-system were less active in several areas. As illustrated below, there were fewer recorded events of companies either: expanding into new market segments; promoting new technology; and, entering into partnering agreements. Product innovation saw a rise in activity as companies launched new products and services. In general, these addressed the needs for specific customer applications.

Telenor and Vodafone show ways ‘beyond connectivity’

A couple of recent developments are symptomatic of how the M2M market has matured beyond device connectivity. These developments involve Telenor Connexion and Vodafone. The two companies have entered into partnering and acquisition deals which signal a shift in their historical activities and the basic, subscription business model.

Their actions are a leading indicator of the strategic challenges faced by mobile network operators (MNOs) [1] and other players in the value chain. Put simply, how will companies capitalise on the commercial opportunities that arise from more widespread connectivity (IoT, IoE etc.) and the eventual merging of wide- and short-rage wireless technologies to connect all manner of connected devices?

Verticals, Horizontal- and IoT-Platforms

One of the implementation challenges that historically acted to restrain the M2M market is the issue of vertical-specific requirements. Each solution necessitated a new and/or tailored IT development effort; this had an impact on solution development costs and constrained the opportunity to realise meaningful economies of scale.

Over the past few years, the M2M industry has expanded in potential scale and scope. It is now interlinked with high volume, consumer oriented application opportunities and, more recently, with an extremely broad scope of connected devices under the Internet of Things/Internet of Everything/Industrial Internet umbrella. Most recently, this evolution has spawned a number of platform announcements from M2M market research firms and also from businesses, such as Aeris, GE and Wind River, many of which are recasting M2M capabilities in an IoT light. Was any of this predictable?

M2M Platform Permutations

Ericsson’s 5 February announcement to supply its M2M Device Connection Platform (DCP) in support of XL Axiata in Indonesia has prompted this update to an earlier article on the competitive dynamics of international alliances and M2M platforms.

The DCP deal is something of a coup, providing Ericsson with a meaningful customer reference in the highest population country in South East Asia. The news announcement actually formalizes a business relationship that dates back to early 2012. In October 2012, both companies highlighted an achievement of 89,000 M2M connections. The pace of growth seems to have accelerated with XL Axiata’s M2M base reaching a total of 125,000 in the intervening months. The latest announcement provides some timely marketing collateral for Ericsson to use with mobile operators that cannot justify an investment in their own M2M platforms and the delegations of mobile-operator executives who will shortly be congregating at Mobile World Congress.

The move by XL Axiata is not unique in the market. Other mobile operators have partnered for M2M platform capabilities to handle large scale application opportunities using processes that are geared specifically to M2M operational needs and economics. AT&T was an early partner of Jasper Wireless, for example, while Everything Everywhere in the UK has been working with another platform provider, Transatel.

These developments and the changing competitive dynamics for M2M platforms will have far-reaching implications for all device vendors, service providers and users in the M2M eco-system.

Competitive dynamics of international M2M alliances

This note will be updated in light of new alliance announcements. 

In July of 2012, seven mobile operators announced a cooperation agreement featuring a unique SIM. This appears to be a move to address a segment of customers seeking to deploy global connected devices and to compete with Vodafone's global SIM offering. However, there are other competitive dynamics at play and longer term corporate strategy implications for companies that are using partnering approaches as a rapid means of market entry.