Shifting Paradigms Set to Shape 6G

How is North America affecting policy change and industry competition?

The participation of White House and Congressional speakers at 6G World’s recent symposium shine a light on the strategic prioritization of next generation communications systems. Political participation matters in the context of 6G leadership ambitions, the practicalities of which I outlined in this three-part article series for 6G World - 1: Leadership, 2: Purpose, 3: Leverage. 

The event was equally important for shedding light on how industry stakeholders are approaching emerging 6G topics and market development activities. The mix of discussions spanned academic research, commercial and operational implications of 6G, industry competition, long-term Federal funding programs, policy priorities, standardization, and vertical-industry requirements. Rather than summarize each panel discussion chronologically, here are several threads that ran through the different sessions, beginning with the need to learn from the past. 

2020 in Review: Corporates Adapt Their IoT Business Models

This review of 2020 corporate initiatives in the IoT market builds on a history of tracking strategic industry developments for over a decade. Two sets of corporate events that bookended the start and end of 2020 provide instructive examples of the roadmap and dead ends that characterize today’s IoT market. In the intervening months, organizations in different parts of the industry ecosystem bolstered their IoT strategies. Some developed complementary capabilities through M&A while others addressed go-to-market issues through business reorganization and product-innovation initiatives. For many organizations, however, there remain challenges in balancing short term imperatives with strategic positioning goals. There is a degree of comfort in embracing the familiar. The risk is that this leads to an under-investment in properly integrating new business approaches and complementary technologies.

Rumelt on 3G: Lessons for 5G and IoT

The consultancy McKinsey recently republished a 2007 interview with Richard Rumelt [1], professor of strategy at UCLA’s Anderson School of Management. Rumelt opened his commentary on strategy by noting that most corporate strategic plans have little to do with strategy. Instead, they typically end up being “three-year or five-year rolling resource budgets and some sort of market share projection”.

What senior managers want out of the strategy process, according to Rumelt, is a pathway to substantially higher performance. That can happen in one of two ways. A firm can either invent its way to success or, it can quickly and skillfully exploit some change in the environment. Examples of such change include technology, consumer taste, resource price or competitive behavior factors.

The telecoms industry finds itself at the intersection of many such changes. On the supply side, the arrival of 5G networks and the standardization of low-power IoT devices provide two industry transition opportunities. These developments will usher in new service concepts and business opportunities.

A change in perspective reveals new IoT strategies

My last post examined the direction that several MNOs are taking with their IoT strategies [1]. Applying these trends at an industry level, I questioned whether MNOs are approaching the commercial opportunity with a broad enough strategic perspective. Think about it from the perspective that traditional mobile connections will supposedly account for roughly 10% of all IoT connections. That proportion should rise now that low power cellular technologies (NB-IoT family) are firmly on the deployment roadmap. Since this raises the credibility of a vibrant supplier eco-system, more adopters should gravitate to mobile connectivity to take advantage of more compelling economies of scale.

Nevertheless, it’s clear that mobile connectivity will coexist as one of several IoT access technologies. However, unless MNOs find ways to stake an economic role in activities higher up the value chain they will lose out on promising commercial prospects. They will also find themselves dis-intermediated from end customers and their needs. How might this play out?

IoT and Smart-building opportunities

What are the important industry dynamics in the smart buildings sector and is there a role for the IoT? Last week, I attended the 6th Building Energy Summit [1] to hear from building owners, building operators, real-estate portfolio managers and corporate-sector tenants.

As in all other industrial sectors, much of the discussion highlighted the established processes and the conservative nature of this sector. Most notably, procurement and architectural design processes make it difficult to introduce truly innovative construction ideas into the sector. In existing buildings, the challenge is to introduce new technologies and working practices in a highly cost conscious environment. The sector is however becoming more technology-friendly and data driven in its decision making.

There is growing acceptance of the idea that IoT is the way to improve decision making and deliver innovative services. Among the IoT use cases discussed, successful projects typically received approval, after considerable financial scrutiny, and realized a return on investment within a period of 1-2 years.

2016 in Review: Shift in Industry Dynamics as the IoT Enters the Mainstream

According to my records, the strength of IoT corporate initiatives witnessed over previous years weakened in 2016, somewhat in contrast to the much greater visibility of the IoT at industry events and in the marketing literature.

While the number of merger, acquisition and investment (MA&I) fell compared to 2015, as a proportion of all corporate events it increased over the prior years.

About 70% of these relate to acquisitions; the remainder correspond to fundraising or investment activities.

Now that the IoT market has become a mainstream idea across the wider economy, the MA&I dynamic reveals a stronger tendency for companies to accelerate their IoT strategies by acquiring capabilities from third parties.

Co-opetition in Digital and IoT markets

Several news stories have circulated over the past few weeks in connection with the potential acquisition of Nokia’s mapping business, HERE. The most recent stories have a group of German auto-manufacturers winning out over Uber although there has been no formal announcement to this effect.

HERE is an important enabler for mobile value-added services. One element of its technology captures location content such as road networks, buildings and traffic patterns. Other businesses then purchase or license this mapping data along with navigation services from HERE. Smartphone Apps, to make use of mapping data, form a part of its technology portfolio.

The potential acquisition of HERE by three German car makers – BMW, Daimler and Audi – is relevant to the telecoms industry for several reasons.

Review of M2M Corporate Events in 2013

2013 as a whole was another year of strong corporate activity in the M2M market. A total of 147 events easily surpassed the 115 events that were recorded in 2012. These events include: announcement of an industry changing technology breakthrough; market entry/expansion initiatives; strategic partnering; investment-related acquisitions or divestitures; distribution agreements along the value chain; product innovation and outsourcing of key service delivery capabilities.

While 2013 saw many more companies taking to the press wires to publicize their sales wins, these are not recorded here as corporate initiatives. If anything, sales wins are the consequence of one or more corporate strategy commitments made in prior years.

An important development that occurred over the course of 2013 was a shift in sentiment to promote IoT in preference to M2M. This began with a raft of announcements at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in January 2013. Momentum continued to build around the IoT theme due to significant publicity drives and business commitments by large organizations such as ARM, Bosch, Cisco, GE and Intel.

Smart Home Platform Innovator Strategies

Early in 2012, I completed a study for the GSM Association (GSMA) on the topic of new business models that would be linked to innovative, connected-device applications. This study laid out a sequence of value propositions, as companies seek to move up the value chain. In order to bring these new value propositions to market, new and innovative business models would need to be designed.

In the early days of M2M, the value proposition was all about connectivity. This would make stand-alone devices ‘smart’ and the business challenge was largely about how connectivity could be ‘embedded’ inexpensively. Later on, the market evolved as companies started to care about deployment, reliability and the user-experience issues. This ushered in a new value proposition around managed connectivity and several specialist platform providers have emerged in their own right or as partners to mobile operators.

The final two sources of value that were identified included the delivery of ‘platform innovator’ and ‘stewardship’ services. The connected devices market has been moving in these directions with three companies – Arrayent, Deutsche Telekom’s Qivicon and Zonoff – investing their energies in the platforms arena.

Rethinking the mHealth Value Proposition

Over the past few weeks there have been a couple of thought provoking developments in the mHealth market. The first event was the withdrawal of two recently launched mHealth services by O2 UK on the grounds that there was inadequate consumer demand. The second event relates to Verizon Wireless which obtained FDA approval for its mobile health remote monitoring and personal health data platform.

These developments prompted me to revisit some earlier work I did on the value proposition in mHealth. In particular, I was investigating whether remote monitoring is actually a relatively minor, but necessary, element in the business model. My earlier work focused on diabetes care although I suspect that the arguments carry over to other chronic health conditions.

M2M Acquisitions and the Price of Growth

The topic of acquisitions in the M2M market has featured in several company announcements and several of my discussions with industry players. In late June Avista Capital Partners completed its $253m acquisition of Telular Corporation, an M2M event monitoring and reporting service provider.

During the month of May, the CEO of Sierra Wireless was quizzed about his company’s acquisition intentions by financial analysts at a Global TMT Conference organised by Jefferies, an investment bank. Following its divestiture of a non-core business unit to focus on M2M, Sierra Wireless holds about $160m on its balance sheet. Of this, about $100m is being earmarked for M&A initiatives. So, what are some of the considerations that will determine how these funds might be deployed?

M2M Corporate Initatives - Strong H1-2013

Over the first half of 2013, there has been strong evidence that companies in the M2M market are continuing to implement a range of business strategies to capture new M2M service and revenue opportunities. Specifically:

• the number of corporate initiatives is more than double that for the corresponding period in 2012

• the market is no longer entirely driven by supply-side companies; several enterprises have strategically embraced M2M connectivity and have either partnered with mobile network operators or they are taking the lead role in developing new services

Verizon M2M - revised priorities?

My attention was recently drawn to Verizon’s recruitment activities in the M2M sector. I was intrigued by the profiles and the roughly 130 positions Verizon has been trying to fill notably when these are viewed against the acquisitions it made as part of its M2M strategy. More on this will follow after a recap of Verizon’s initiatives.

Competing for In-Home Services

Late last year, in the course of some project-related research, I took a look at the home security market in the context of 'smart-home' service concepts. Fixed- and mobile-network operators view this as one of several promising market opportunities to offer home automation and home security types of service.

A great deal is made about mobile operators pursuing new opportunities such as these in what are referred to as ‘adjacent markets’. However, it is as well to recognize that incumbent providers from those 'adjacent' markets may also have ambitions of their own in the communications arena.

Finance as a Telco M2M offering

The role of telecommunications service providers in the M2M market is typically associated with the provision of wide-area data connectivity. This narrow perspective ignores the other capabilities - technical and non-technical - that service providers can bring to bear in new application scenarios.

In November 2012, Telefónica announced a cooperation agreement with Generali Seguros in Spain to pilot a new, automobile insurance service. The service will allow users to pay for their car insurance policy based on how they drive. The service will also provide information about how users can drive responsibly and tips to improve their driving habits. The overall service concept is not new; it has parallels with an offering such as 'In Drive' which is available in the USA from State Farm Insurance and Verizon's recently acquired subsidiary, Hughes Telematics.

However, what is interesting in the Spanish case is the three-party business model that Telefónica has put in place to capture a share of the wider commercial potential of this new service.

Connected-device business models in the US Market

(published in RCR Wireless - 26 Nov 2012)

A previous article in RCR Wireless magazine highlighted the topic of new M2M business models with reference to the size and characteristics of this fast growing market opportunity. It also highlighted the central role that communications service providers (CSPs) occupy in the eco-system. Beyond traditional data plans, however, what are the new business models that will allow the full market potential to be attained?