A change in perspective reveals new IoT strategies

My last post examined the direction that several MNOs are taking with their IoT strategies [1]. Applying these trends at an industry level, I questioned whether MNOs are approaching the commercial opportunity with a broad enough strategic perspective. Think about it from the perspective that traditional mobile connections will supposedly account for roughly 10% of all IoT connections. That proportion should rise now that low power cellular technologies (NB-IoT family) are firmly on the deployment roadmap. Since this raises the credibility of a vibrant supplier eco-system, more adopters should gravitate to mobile connectivity to take advantage of more compelling economies of scale.

Nevertheless, it’s clear that mobile connectivity will coexist as one of several IoT access technologies. However, unless MNOs find ways to stake an economic role in activities higher up the value chain they will lose out on promising commercial prospects. They will also find themselves dis-intermediated from end customers and their needs. How might this play out?

A fresh look at MNOs' IoT strategy

Over the past few weeks, there have been several commentaries about IoT strategies for mobile network operators (MNOs), several of these expressed at Mobile Europe’s 2018 IoT in Telecoms conference.

Vodafone’s Director of IoT, Stefano Gastaut [1], expressed visible frustration about the ‘dumb pipe’ label attached to MNOs and the implied commoditization of connectivity. Enrico Bagnasco, Head of Innovation at TIM articulated [2] a ‘horizontal services’ view.

And, finally, Ericsson published a study [3] drawing on interviews with 20 mobile operators about the status of their IoT priorities and the strategic opportunities for growth. One highlight in Ericsson’s findings is that 70% lack a well-defined strategy. While many are testing different roles in the IoT value chain, 80% plan to move up to higher layers.

On the whole, it therefore looks as if the industry has got second wind, aiming to build on a first phase of growth, triggered by the GSMA’s ‘M2M and Beyond’ industry strategy.

So, are operators on the right track to capitalize on the opportunity or has the market passed them by?

Who is setting the IoT agenda?

Several weeks ago, I was in a briefing call with a panelist who was preparing for an event on privacy and security challenges in the IoT market. This was in the context of possible guidelines emanating from the US government.

There was the usual discussion about the pros and cons of light-touch and self-regulatory approaches, in keeping with the conditions that fostered innovation and investment in the Internet.

However, the world has moved on since the late-90s; it is worth spending time to reflect on today's conditions and what new approaches are warranted. And, to what extent will US agencies set the future direction?

Blockchain and the Mobile Industry

With almost no industry untouched by blockchain-mania, what opportunities does the technology hold for the mobile industry? Recognizing the issue, the GSMA has begun to explore the applicability of its Mobile Connect, identity management proposition. And, at this year's Mobile World Congress, several mobile network operators (MNOs) bandied together to launch a collaborative approach [1].

Innovating and Investing Strategically in New Service Categories

A few weeks ago, the UK mobile operator O2 decided to shut down it smart home business [1]. O2 stated that it had not seen "category-leading take up" of the service to justify continued investment.

This episode encapsulates a recurring challenge for businesses in the mobile eco-system, laboring under the opportunities to exploit mobile technology in adjacent industries and new application categories. Just think back to the promise of mobile money and mHealth (another category that Telefonica entered and subsequently exited a few years ago [2]). The new waves of opportunity today are in the industrial IoT and smart city markets, to name a couple of examples.

2017 in Review: Making the IoT work

Looking back over notable, M2M/IoT corporate initiatives in 2017, mobile network operators (MNOs) and technology vendors were the two most active groups in the industry eco-system.

The main feature amongst MNOs was market expansion into new geographies. Sometimes, this happened individually; more often, it took the form of partnering with other network operators. This is a classic growth model for the mobile operator community.

In the technology vendor community, leading initiatives took the form of: acquisitions/investments; partnering (with MNOs, platform providers and system integrators); and, product innovation.

In comparative terms, activity among platform organizations was subdued. And, end-users barely featured among 2017 initiatives. It is likely that these last two data points mask a higher level of internal activity targeting operational scaling and in-house developments as firms solidify their foundations in the IoT market. As an example, Altair, a provider of engineering software to enterprise customers, acquired the Carriots IoT platform. This initiative illustrates the trend to internalize IoT capabilities and has parallels with the earlier acquisition of ThingWorx by PTC [1].

Innovation at ETSI IoT Week 2017

Last week, I attended ETSI's IoT Week, an annual event to explore the IoT standardization landscape and to see how industry and academics, around the world, are testing IoT implementation ideas for the future. Not surprisingly, the oneM2M standard featured prominently in the program and the display zone of demonstrator projects given that ETSI is one of 8 standards development organization (SDO) partners in the oneM2M project.

However, not everything on the agenda centered on oneM2M. Other standardization efforts were also represented including: ESMIG (energy); SigFox and LoRA Alliance in the LPWAN sector; ZigBee Alliance; and, international organizations such as ISO, IEC. And, several companies, including MNOs, demonstrated how they are addressing new business and revenue opportunities beyond IoT connectivity.

Structural determinants of Smart City strategy

Once viewed as a futuristic aspiration, the smart city concept is now firmly on the operational agenda of government officials and private sector solution providers. The evolution towards grounded solutions means that adopters and solution providers require tangible strategies along with workable frameworks and planning tools to initiate their smart city initiatives. For evidence, look at how the emerging smart city industry acts as a host to multiple smart city reference architecture initiatives in parallel with multiple check-list criteria that aim to rank cities on smart city implementation roadmaps.

In the spirit of practical solutions, let’s focus on two structural features about city planning and management to illustrate the real-world challenges that city authorities will have to overcome. The first deals with differing economic profiles that characterize individual cities. The second concerns existing commercial models that cities and their private sector service providers will have to adapt to foster viable and enduring smart strategies.

IDEAthons – connecting IoT ideas, execution and funding

As new technologies become commonplace, there is a case for exploring new value creation opportunities in the realm of application ideas. Put differently, should the ever-popular hackathon give way to a new type of event – the ideathon? This notion cropped up when I attended my first ever ideathon to explore innovative service and business model opportunities in the IoT and intelligent

transport solutions markets.

The intent of an ideathon is to bring together individuals from different organizations to form small teams that work through new ideas. Teams don’t just focus on technology; they consider factors such as drivers of demand, the value proposition, the service delivery business model and its economics.

The event I attended included a mix of entrepreneurs, public-sector representatives and technologists who were exploring new ideas, building on the oneTRANSPORT regional intelligent transport system trial [1] and the Transport Data Initiative [2].

IoT Complications for MNO Business Units

Mobile operators, it would appear, remain captivated by connectivity solutions. Most recently, low-power technologies (e.g. LoRA, NB-IoT, SigFox etc.) have dominated the industry agenda. This outlook is slowly starting to change. Ian Huh, SVP of SK Telecom’s (SKT) IoT business described fees on its LoRA network as amounting to just 10 per cent of those on 3G/4G networks [1]. He pointed out that this would need at least a tenfold increase in the number of connected devices in highlighting the potentially destructive impact on revenues.

SKT’s comments are timely and show that the debate is shifting from shiny new technology to earning commercial returns. MNOs need to do something, over and above the sale of SIMs and connectivity, to capitalize on the wider IoT business opportunity.

IoT and Smart-building opportunities

What are the important industry dynamics in the smart buildings sector and is there a role for the IoT? Last week, I attended the 6th Building Energy Summit [1] to hear from building owners, building operators, real-estate portfolio managers and corporate-sector tenants.

As in all other industrial sectors, much of the discussion highlighted the established processes and the conservative nature of this sector. Most notably, procurement and architectural design processes make it difficult to introduce truly innovative construction ideas into the sector. In existing buildings, the challenge is to introduce new technologies and working practices in a highly cost conscious environment. The sector is however becoming more technology-friendly and data driven in its decision making.

There is growing acceptance of the idea that IoT is the way to improve decision making and deliver innovative services. Among the IoT use cases discussed, successful projects typically received approval, after considerable financial scrutiny, and realized a return on investment within a period of 1-2 years.

Making an Impact with IoT and Digital Transformation

A few weeks ago [1], I wrote about the potential for telcos to take advantage of digital transformation opportunities to boost industry growth. At present, much of what passes as digital transformation in the telco sector focuses on new technology (NFV, SDN, 5G etc.). This is understandable given the desire for innovators and vendors to sell new technologies that help service providers adopt more agile and flexible operational models.

However, these ideas do not correspond to transformation in the sense of entering new markets or, of driving revenue growth in new service categories. NFV, SDN and 5G are more likely to lead to juggling between CapEx and OpEx budgets which will have an impact on profitability and depreciation financial metrics rather than driving top-line revenue growth. The Internet of Things (IoT) does have the potential to open up new growth markets and is starting to be recognized as an enabler for digital transformation.

So, is there much evidence that will encourage telcos to enter completely new markets and drive meaningful revenue growth? What characterizes such opportunities and how should telcos approach them?

Will digital transformation save the telco industry?

Over the past few weeks, McKinsey [1] and the World Economic Forum (WEF) [2] have weighed in on the debate about long term growth prospects in the telecommunications sector. They have valid concerns which arise from projections for low revenue growth and shrinking margins for telecommunications service providers. The near term prospects for many telcos involves the sale ever increasing volumes of data and cloud services to consumer and business customers on the assumption that price elasticity effects will work in their favor and not undermine top-line, revenue growth.

The McKinsey and WEF ideas rely on optimizing the core business and building at the periphery to support digital services and enhanced customer experiences. These approaches take a narrow view of the market for telcos and one and define competition in terms of other telco service providers. Is that really the right way to address the strategic challenge that faces the industry?

Mass-market data monetization

The motivation for this article comes from several recent and groundbreaking announcements relating to the commercialization of consumer data. In one of these, Proximus [1] launched myAnalytics, a service that sells aggregated customer data as a ‘market research’ service for businesses such as tourism agencies, event organizers, marketers and those in charge of mobility management.

Telefonica, one of the larger communications service providers, announced plans to create a personal data bank for each of its 350m customers [2]. This will allow customers the means of storing, managing and selling their own data. When questioned about Telefonica’s plans, Vodafone’s CEO expressed puzzlement as to whether this is any different from everyday protection of customer data [3]. This reaction should set a few alarm bells ringing.

SK Telecom’s IoT strategy looks beyond Connected Devices

Over the summer, Korea’s SK Telecom outlined its strategy to capitalize on the IoT opportunity. From a networking standpoint, SK Telecom has invested in a nationwide LoRa network. It plans to offer a hybrid offering in parallel with LTE-M over its conventional mobile network. This combination allows SK Telecom to span a wider spectrum of coverage and cost-structure alternatives. Its technology choices use licensed and unlicensed spectrum, support differing data-rates, and, offer a broad range of embedded module costs to deal with barriers to adoption in low price-point (or low perceived value) devices.

Comparative advantage in IoT standardization

Last year, I wrote a post about the landscape of standards development organizations, industry-alliances and company consortia [1]. Several recent developments have led me to revisit the topic. There are signs that the IoT market is maturing. Users and service providers are well beyond the first hurdle of understanding a new capability and set of enabling technologies. And, businesses are exploring the longer-term road map for IoT solutions and the underlying enablers they will need.

Nigel Upton, Worldwide Director and GM IoT/GCP at Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HP-E) encapsulated the issue, from a business standpoint, in a recent conference presentation [2]. He advised companies that they could simplify their IoT strategies by using a common platform, a common data model and an IoT standard. It so happens that HP-E chose oneM2M, viewing it as the best supported standard on offer.

Rumble in the IoT Jungle

I recently participated in a debate, hosted by the IEEE Communications Society, about the pros and cons of IoT standardization. My debating counterpart was the North Americas President of SigFox, a company that has so far raised over US$150m. SigFox is in the process of deploying its proprietary networking technology in 18 countries specifically for the purpose of energy-efficient and low-cost IoT applications.

Much of the debate and several of the audience questions focused on the worry about standards proliferation in the IoT market. This creates a confusing picture for business that have to make long-term product development decisions. My observations on the issue of IoT standardization were fourfold.

A tweet to IoT’s low-power, wide-area networking proponents

It’s amazing to think that Twitter recently turned ten years old. This milestone came on the heels of a rumored, CEO-level assessment [1] of whether to relax its longstanding 140-character limit on tweets. Some of the reaction to this development questions how Twitter, a major influencer of condensed, bite-sized communications, could pull the rug from under its core proposition.

There’s a timely lesson in Twitter’s evolution for the rapidly growing band of companies developing low-power, wide-area and small payload IoT applications.

2015 in Review: The strategic balance between IoT scale and value

Corporate activity in the M2M/IoT market continues to grow in line with the roughly 30% growth rate that many market analysts forecast for connected devices. Acquisition and investment activity grew at a much faster rate over the past few years and reflects a positive corporate attitude to this important market.

Mobile network operators (MNOs) were very active especially in the low-power, wide-area networking (LPWAN) arena which is positive in terms of driving industry scale. Companies in the platform services segment were even more active highlighting the scope for value creation higher up the industry value chain. The industry dynamics between MNOs and platform service providers will set up an interesting strategic challenge – that of scale vs. value – which will affect all market participants over the coming years.

IoT growth options for service providers

Do mobile operators and M2M service providers have a role in the emerging IoT market? This is a hot topic in corporate boardrooms, industry journals [1] and IoT conferences [2]. It’s also one where MNOs, M2M service providers and technology providers hold opposing opinions, even within the same company.

It’s clear that companies are keen to capitalise on the IoT opportunity. This should be no surprise given the drum-roll of multiple billions of connected devices from different analyst firms. What holds companies back is their relatively incomplete grasp of:

• how the market will develop along different dimensions,
  
• where the innovative commercial opportunities are crystallizing,
  
• and, what strategic initiatives will help companies to position themselves to capitalize on market opportunities (as distinct from worrying about where the next tranche of connected device sales will come from). 

One way to simplify the IoT strategy challenge is to step back and visualize the emerging market landscape. This provides the map against which individual companies can plot their IoT strategies. It’s a bit like a person sitting on top of a tall hill, surveying the surrounding countryside and deciding on the best route between points A and B, taking account of his/her own resourcefulness.

Just like the countryside below our strategist on top of the hill, it’s useful to think of the IoT map in terms of a cube to illustrate three avenues of growth.